By Marcelle Dibrell

Shares of Pool Corporation — the world’s largest wholesale distributor of swimming pool supplies — appear to have come full circle after the dramatic boom and correction triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic.

A long-term price chart of the company’s stock (NASDAQ: POOL) shows shares recently trading around $207-$208, roughly the same range where they traded just before the pandemic began reshaping the pool industry in 2020.

For nearly three decades after its 1995 public debut, Pool Corp’s stock climbed steadily, reflecting the slow but consistent growth of the residential pool market. Shares traded for less than $1 in the mid-1990s, then rose gradually through the 2000s and 2010s as the company expanded its distribution network and product lines across North America and internationally.

By late 2019 and early 2020, Pool Corp stock had reached roughly the $190-$210 range. At that point, the company was already widely regarded as one of the most stable performers in the pool and spa sector, supported by strong aftermarket demand for chemicals, equipment, and

Pool Corporation was incorporated in 1993 with headquarters in Covington, Louisiana. Pool Corporation distributes swimming pool supplies, equipment, related leisure, irrigation, and landscape maintenance products in the United States and internationally. Pool Corp has 6000 employees. replacement parts.

Then COVID hit. Lockdowns, travel restrictions, and the sudden shift toward spending more time at home ignited an unprecedented boom in backyard recreation. Swimming pools became one of the most visible beneficiaries of that trend.

Demand for new pool construction, remodels, equipment upgrades, and maintenance supplies surged across the United States. Builders reported record backlogs, and distributors struggled to keep up with demand for pumps, heaters, filters, automation systems, and chemicals.

As the industry expanded rapidly, investors poured into pool-related companies, pushing Pool Corp’s share price sharply upward. Between 2020 and 2021, the stock climbed dramatically, eventually peaking above $500 per share during the height of the pandemic housing and backyardliving boom —the fastest valuation increase in the company’s history.

Pool Corp CEO Peter D. Arvan described the period during a 2020 earnings call.

“Never in my wildest imagination could I have envisioned a year like 2020,” Arvan said. “The demand for our products was unparalleled.”

But the surge proved temporary. Beginning in 2022, several factors began cooling the pool market, including rising interest rates, slowing housing activity, inflation affecting discretionary spending, and the gradual normalization of outdoor-living demand after pandemic lockdowns ended.

As the industry shifted from expansion to normalization, Pool Corp’s stock price began drifting down from its pandemic highs. The decline has been gradual rather than sudden, unwinding much of the pandemic-era valuation spike.

Now, with shares again trading near $200, the stock has largely returned to the level where it stood before COVID-19 disrupted the market.

For the pool industry, the pattern mirrors what many builders, service companies, and suppliers experienced on the ground: Explosive demand from 2020 through 2022; widespread supply shortages and record sales; followed by a gradual return to more typical seasonal patterns.

Even with the pullback from its peak, Pool Corp’s long-term trajectory still represents one of the strongest growth stories in the pool sector.

The key question now facing investors and industry professionals is whether the pandemic surge was a temporary spike, a market reset, or the start of a new growth phase driven by a larger installed base of pools.

One interpretation is that the pandemic simply pushed the industry temporarily above its normal growth curve and that the current price represents a return to that long-term trajectory. If that proves correct, the recent decline may reflect the removal of a pandemic-era premium rather than a fundamental shift in the industry.

Another possibility is that the market is adjusting to a post-boom slowdown after several extraordinary years.

Recent company guidance suggests new construction activity has cooled substantially since the pandemic peak. In a 2024 update, Arvan noted that: “The most recent pool permit data suggests persistently weak demand for new pool construction.”

Higher interest rates, inflation, and housing-market uncertainty have slowed new projects across many regions. For investors, that raises the possibility that pandemic-era earnings represented a temporary peak rather than a new baseline.

A third scenario lies somewhere between those two extremes.

Even if new construction slows, the pandemic dramatically increased the installed base of pools across the country — each of which requires decades of maintenance, chemicals, and equipment replacement.

More than 60 percent of Pool Corp’s revenue comes from ongoing maintenance and replacement products, which Arvan has described as “recurring revenues” that are “generally not impacted by macroeconomic conditions.”

That recurring demand could provide long-term support even if new pool construction remains below pandemic levels.

Whether Pool Corp’s stock resumes its long-term climb, stabilizes at current levels, or continues drifting lower will depend on how the next phase of the market unfolds.

What is clear is that the pandemic produced one of the most dramatic demand swings the pool industry has ever experienced — and the effects of that surge are still playing out across the sector today.

From under $1 in 1995 to roughly $200 today, the stock’s long-term rise reflects decades of growth in the installed pool base, the strength of the aftermarket maintenance business, and the continuing expansion of backyard living across the United States.